Post-Parkland Prediction: Be Alert in April

There are certain times of year that are routinely more dangerous for our children. What should people be preparing for in the wake of the Parkland shooting?

In my 2004 book, The Copycat Effect, I wrote a subsection entitled the "Significant of Dates," and began with the example of St. Valentine's Day, February 14th, (page 246):

Dates are important, anniversary events especially so. Suicides, murder-suicides, murders tend to clump around dates of loss for at-risk victims.
One such date is one that most people assume should be associated with happy feelings, but it is not. That is Valentine’s Day. For many people, it’s a day that speaks more to emptiness and loss than to joy and love.

When I wrote Suicide Clusters (NY: Faber & Faber, 1987), I mentioned the spike in suicides around Valentine's Day. From interviews I conducted, the date tended to not remind people of all the people they loved, but, among suicidal individuals, how alone they were. Simply put, people felt suicidal around February 14th. In this modern era of violence, that translates into also feeling homicidal.

The suicide clusters of the early 1980s were replaced by school shootings, as you know from the wall-to-wall coverage, first in a trickle in the mid-1980s, through the mid-1990s, followed by the tsunami of Columbine (1999) and beyond.

Ten years ago, in 2008, after school shootings in Memphis (February 4), Baton Rouge (February 8), Memphis again (February 11), and Oxnard (February 12), a mass shooting occurred at Northern Illinois University, in DeKalb, Illinois, leaving 6 dead (5 at the college and the shooter through suicide) and 21 wounded on February 14, Valentine’s Day, 2008.

The Parkland school shooting occurred on the 10th anniversary of that mass shooting of February 14, 2008, happening at Cole Hall, Northern Illinois University (NIU) in DeKalb, Illinois. Steven Kazmierczak opened fire with a shotgun and three pistols into a crowd of students on campus, killing five students and injuring an additional 17 people, before fatally shooting himself.

A school shooting of February 19, 2010, revisited DeKalb, Illinois. Soon after NIU marked the 2nd anniversary of the mass shooting that claimed the lives of six, 24-year-old NIU student Brian Mulder was shot by fellow student 22-year-old Zachary R. Isaacman, who survived.

But this time of year has been a dangerous one for years. There was a school shooting on February 19, 1987, with two dead. At the Bethel (Alaska) Regional High School shooting, 16-year-old student Evan Ramsey killed principal Ron Edwards, and 15-year-old star student athlete Joshua Palacios. He also wounded two other students.

School shootings go back over a hundred years. These deadly events occurred on February 14, 1883 (Florence, Nebraska) and February 14, 1920 (Durant, Oklahoma).  There was a school shooting on February 16, 1912, at LaGrange, New York, at the Sprout Creek School House, when 14-year-old May McQuade was killed by classmate Raymond B. Carroll, also 14. (This is part of the Fayette Factor for LaGrange is the French home of Lafayette.)

School shootings cluster and build momentum. This can be seen in Februarys and give indication that the copycat effect is taking place. For Februarys, you will find the data shows in 1978 (February 9, February 22); in 1996 (February 2, February 29); in 1997 (February 19); in 2004 (February 2, February 9); in 2005 (February 8); in 2008 (February 4, February 8, February 11, February 12, February 14); in 2010 (February 5, February 12, February 19, February 23); in 2014 (February 10, February 10, February 12, February 22);  in 2015 (February 4, February 14, February 23); in 2016 (February 9, February 12, February 29); and in 2017 (February 1, February 4, February 14).

If past modern trends continue, please be alert and aware that a winter (February) cluster of school shootings is followed by an infrequent but large school shooting in April, especially during the "dangerous red zone" of late April.

Ponder which dates of the month have turned into anniversaries for certain towns and cities:

April 12, 1994 - Butte, Montana - 1 killed

April 12, 2013 - Dublin, Virginia - 2 wounded

April 13, 2015 - Goldsboro, North Carolina - 1 killed

April 14, 2003 - New Orleans, Louisiana - 1 killed, 3 wounded

April 15, 1993 - Acushnet, Massachusetts - 1 killed 

April 16, 1987 - Detroit, Michigan - 1 killed, 2 wounded

April 16, 1999 - Notus, Idaho - mild injuries

April 16, 2007 - Blacksburg, Virginia - 33 killed, 23 wounded

April 16, 2013 - Grambling, Virginia - 3 wounded

April 16, 2015 - Paradis, Louisiana - 1 wounded

April 18, 2013 - Cambridge, Massachusetts - 2 killed, 1 wounded

April 20, 1999 - Columbine, Colorado - 15 killed, 21 injured

April 21, 1994 - Nashville, Tennessee - 1 killed 

April 23, 1991 - Compton, California - 1 killed

April 23, 2016 - Antigo, Wisconsin - 1 killed, 2 wounded

April 24, 1998 - Edinboro, Pennsylvania - 1 killed, 3 wounded

April 24, 2003 - Red Lion, Pennsylvania - 2 killed

April 26, 2009 - Hampton, Virginia - 3 wounded

April 27, 2015 - Lacey, Washington - no injuries

April 29, 1986 - Senath, Missouri - 1 killed

Modern school shootings have, therefore, clustered historically during Aprils in 2015 (April 13, April 16, and April 27); in 2014 (April 9 and April 11); in 2013 (April 12, April 16, April 18); in 2003 (April 14, April 24); in 1999 (April 16, April 20); and in 1994 (April 12, April 21).

April will be a dangerous time for mass shootings and other violent events. Needless to say, there are going to be school incidents, workplace violence, and probably mall & movie situations between now and April 2018. But there is something in the psyche of the suicidal-homicidal individuals who conduct school shootings linked to February and April.

Recall that April is a flashpoint for more than America. The W. R. Myers High School shooting was a school shooting that occurred on April 28, 1999, at W. R. Myers High School in Taber, Alberta, Canada. The gunman, 14-year-old Todd Cameron Smith, walked into his school and began firing at three students in a hallway, killing one student and wounding another student. This shooting was a direct copycat of the Columbine event of eight days before.

In 2009, on April 10, at a vocational college in Athens, Greece, one was killed in a shooting, and on April 28, at an elementary school in Harstad, Norway, no one was injured in the first Norwegian school shooting. On April 7, 2011, A 23-year-old former student fatally shot 12 people inside a Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, school and died by suicide after being shot down by a policeman. In 2015, at a school in Barcelona, Spain, on April 20, a 13-year-old boy armed with a crossbow and a machete killed a teacher and injured 4.

The face of evil.

April 20, 2018, will be the 19th anniversary of the Columbine school shooting and the 129th anniversary of the birth of Adolf Hitler, who then killed himself on April 30, 1945. April 26th is Hitler's right hand man, Rudolf Hess's birthday and the anniversary of the Erfurt, Germany school shooting in 2002, when Robert Steinhäuser killed 16 and then himself.

It does get personal. Pictured is my maternal grandmother, Nellie Gray, who died at the hands of her estranged second husband, in a murder-suicide on Valentine's Day, 1940.

It is worthy of repeating what I wrote in 2009:

Murder and suicide are two sides of the same coin played out in going postal, workplace violence, shooting spree, and school shooting incidents, which are impacted by the copycat effect.
Being forewarned and aware is half the battle. Vulnerable, suicidal, homicidal youth need help and attention, long before it gets to the stage where they feel there's no turning back. Keep talking, take care, get people help, and remain alert, with your guard up.
A few bloggers may wish to demean the predictive insights of known patterns, but ridicule does not overwhelm the reality of history.

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"Killers often pick special dates for their attack," April 17, 2009 by Trish Crawford, in Toronto Star

...Loren Coleman is worried, because mass killers often choose special dates and anniversaries for their carnage. The killers at Columbine did, by picking the birthday of one of history's monsters.
The author of The Copycat Effect (Simon & Schuster) says the amount of attention this anniversary gets may determine whether any other disaffected males bent on vengeance pick April 20 for their act of destruction.
"Anniversaries can be dangerous," Coleman says. "These individuals compete with each other."
...Coleman called schools "a fish bowl setting with a vulnerable population."
...The killers are uniformly "homicidal, suicidal, sexually dysfunctional males" who feel powerless and blame others for their problems. Attacking school students – young girls are favored targets – makes these people feel powerful and strong, Coleman says.

Groundhog Day, Anniversary Syndrome, and the Houston-Brown Drownings

As many of you know, an area of academic research I’ve conducted involves the sociological and historical impact and the mystery of death and dying among humans. I have done work and written books on suicides, suicide prevention, murder-suicide timing, "going postal" events, and school shootings. I have penned obituaries to celebrate life, to avoid dwelling on the type or moment of death, but instead to reinforce the remembering of a person’s entire legacy.

There are well-known but little-discussed syndromes that involve “when” people die that have always intrigued me: the “Anniversary” and the “Birthday” reactions and syndromes, for example.

The film Groundhog Day is a metaphorical journey about the Anniversary Syndrome.

One recent news item highlights the Anniversary Syndrome and how it is a form of the copycat effect. It is often quite evident if the method and timing are reflective of the circumstances of the death being copied.

Bobbi Kristina Brown, the late Whitney Houston's 21-year-old daughter with singer Bobby Brown, was rushed to a hospital in Roswell, Georgia, on January 31, 2015, Saturday morning after her husband and a friend found her in the tub. Her husband Nick Gordon performed CPR.

A police report released on February 2nd said officers responded to the home in reference to a drowning. The narrative of the incident offered no information about the young woman's condition or the circumstances leading to her being found.

Bobbi Kristina Brown is reportedly in an induced coma and has "significantly diminished" brain function.

On February 11, 2012, Whitney Houston was found unconscious in Suite 434 at the Beverly Hilton Hotel, Beverly Hills, California, submerged in the bathtub; she was later pronounced dead. The cause of death was not immediately known. It was later ruled by the coroner to have been an "accidental drowning." Beverly Hills paramedics arrived at approximately 3:30 p.m. and found the singer unresponsive and performed CPR. Houston was pronounced dead at 3:55 p.m. PST. Local police said there were "no obvious signs of criminal intent." On March 22, 2012, the Los Angeles County coroner's office reported the cause of Houston's death was drowning and the "effects of atherosclerotic heart disease and cocaine use." The office stated the amount of cocaine found in Houston's body indicated that she used the substance shortly before her death. Toxicology results revealed additional drugs in her system: Benadryl, Xanax, marijuana and Flexeril. The manner of death was listed as an "accident."

Houston performed "The Star Spangled Banner" at Super Bowl XXV at Tampa Stadium on January 27, 1991.

Whitney Houston's "accidental" bathtub death and her daughter's apparent bathtub drowning both occurred around the same time of year. But more significantly, the two events seemed to have some relationship to being near the dates of 2012's and 2015's NFL Super Bowls.

In 2012, Super Bowl XLVI was played on February 5th. The New York Giants defeated The New England Patriots by a score of 21 to 17. Whitney Houston died on February 11th. The main halftime show performer was Madonna, with M.I.A. and Nicki Minaj.

In 2015, Super Bowl XLIX was played on February 1st. The New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks by a score of 28 to 24. The main halftime show performer was Katy Perry, with Lenny Kravitz and Missy Elliot.

Ritualized directional hand signs? Katy Perry wears a 49 jersey.

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Conspiracy videos after Whitney Houston died talked of her being killed by the Illumanti. See here.

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New conspiracy theories are floating around regarding the new Brown news, such as this one posted on YouTube by a Mr. Cati. BTW, Whitney Houston was 48, not 49, when she died. She would have been 49 on her birthday of August 9, 2012.

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But what if it is nothing more than the Anniversary Syndrome?

It is a matter of native folk knowledge that some people appear to wait until a loved one's specific death anniversary, or their own birthday, to die on during those nearby times. Research has proven it has a basis in fact.

Holidays are anniversaries of important events. Holidays and death go hand in hand. Birth dates and death do too.

The notion that there is an anniversary syndrome in which deaths are tied to birthdays or important dates in a person's life has been scientifically studied. The after effects of Post Traumatic Stress events can result in depression or rage linked to the anniversary of any traumatic event such as a death, war, or accident.

This is clearest, perhaps, as the date of death of a loved one approaches. The anniversary of a relative, especially a father or mother, can trigger a Sudden Death (SD), according to research that was presented in March 2008, at the American College of Cardiology’s 57th Annual Scientific Session.

“Sudden death is a major public health problem and is responsible for nearly half of all cardiac deaths,” said Juan Marques, M.D., Central University of Venezuela, and co-investigator of this study. He wrote:

Researchers evaluated a consecutive series of 102 documented sudden death cases of individuals between 37 and 79 years old. Life circumstances that preceded death were investigated. In nearly 70 percent of cases (69 cases), the underlying syndrome was coronary artery disease. In 13 percent of cases (13 cases), SD occurs on the anniversary date of the traumatic event of death of a parent (seven on the anniversary of father’s death, five on the anniversary of mother’s death and one on the anniversary of the death of the mother and father, who died on the same date). Deaths were not related to the loss of any other close family member. Roughly one-third (4 cases) died at a similar age as the family member who died previously....Nearly 80 percent of the patients (10 cases) who died suddenly under the anniversary effect were male. The reason for this is not understood, but may reflect gender differences in response to stressful situations. Source.

Earlier, in 1992, Dr. David P. Phillips, a sociology professor at the University of California in San Diego conducted a study that found that an approaching birthday seems to prolong life in women and precipitate death in men. His study, based on 2,745,149 deaths from natural causes, found that women were more likely to die in the week after their birthdays than in any other week during the year, while men tended to die shortly before their birthdays. It was the first study to show gender differences in so-called anniversary effects: changes in behavior on birthdays, holidays or other personally meaningful occasions.

Birthdays can be either "a deadline or a lifeline," said Phillips. "In our achievement-oriented society, men may find themselves wanting. They don't want to go through another one of these stock-taking periods."

The study was published in the September 1992, Psychosomatic Medicine, the journal of the American Psychosomatic Society, and found 3 percent more deaths than expected among women in the week after a birthday and a slight decline the week before. For men, deaths peaked just before birthdays and showed no rise above normal afterward.

It is true that you can find memorable events that have happened on any date on the calendar, but it is a different matter when the historic incidents are especially significant to the people dying.

Mark Stibich, Ph.D., has this to say about this topic, as it relates to traumatic memories:

There is a commonly held belief that people die more around dates that they associate with loved ones passing or near certain holidays. Some of the statistics prove true – there are more deaths around Christmas (for Westerners) and just after Chinese New Year’s (for Chinese). People seem to be able to time their deaths – extending them slightly to make it to a holiday, birthday or other event.
A recent report in Reuters told of a case in which a woman had a heart attack exactly one week (to the hour) after her father had died. The strangest part is – she was standing at the grave of her sister who had died when she heard the news of her father’s death. Researchers have called this the “anniversary reaction.”
Researchers don’t exactly know what the “anniversary reaction” is or how it might work. What we do know is that thinking positively about the future can add years to your life. So find something to look forward to and be positive about, especially near sad anniversaries. “Anniversary Reaction – Can Memory Trigger Death?”

If this is related to birthdays, where people actually are able to stem the tide of death until they reach their birthdays or important dates, you can see how it interrelates with the anniversary syndrome.

Texas, Columbia, Astronauts, Israel and Palestine

How do legends and legacies merge and synchromystically intertwine? Let's look at this first day of February.

On February 1, 1861, Texas seceded from the Union. The strongest opponent was Sam Houston (March 2, 1793 – July 26, 1863), who felt Texas should remain part of the USA.

On February 1, 1894, John Ford (real name John Martin "Jack" Feeney), American director and producer, was born in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, and grew up in Portland, Maine. Ford became famed for his Westerns. One of Ford's most famous proteges turned out to be John Wayne. Wayne's birth name was Marion Robert Morrison, which was changed to Marion Mitchell Morrison; he used the stage name John Wayne.

On February 1, 1961, Daniel Tani, American engineer and astronaut was born in Ridley Park, Pennsylvania, but he considers Lombard, Illinois, to be his hometown. His parents, Rose and Henry N. Tani, (now deceased), during World War II, were relocated from their California farm to the Topaz War Relocation Center in Utah as part of the Japanese American internment program of the U.S. government. They lived for several months in converted horse stables at the Tanforan Racetrack. On December 19, 2007, during Tani's stay on the International Space Station as a member of Expedition 16, he was informed by the ground team that his mother had been killed when a freight train collided with her car.

On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia on mission STS-107 disintegrated during reentry into the Earth's atmosphere, killing all seven astronauts aboard. Those seven astronauts' names are:

Michael P. Anderson, American astronaut (b. 1959),
David Brown, American astronaut (b. 1956),
Kalpana Chawla, American astronaut (b. 1961),
Laurel Clark, American astronaut (b. 1961),
Rick Husband, American astronaut (b. 1957),
Willie McCool, American astronaut (b. 1961), and
Ilan Ramon, Israeli astronaut (b. 1954).

Ilan Ramon was the first Israeli astronaut. His first name, Ilan, means "tree" in Hebrew. Ilan changed his last name from Wolferman when he joined the Israeli Air Force. On June 7, 1981, he was the youngest pilot taking part in Operation Opera, Israel's strike against Iraq's unfinished Osiraq nuclear reactor, 10 miles southeast of Baghdad.

One location often mentioned ten years ago for where the parts of the Columbia fell was Palestine, Texas. The irony of that location was not lost on many at the time, considering the fact the Columbia carried an Israeli aboard. Even this remarkable "coincidence" is apparent in this Wikipedia mention:

Palestine entered the news in February 2003, as one of the East Texas towns that received much of the debris from the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, where seven astronauts were killed, including the first Israeli astronaut. Palestine is also home to the NASA Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility (renamed after the shuttle crash), which has flown 1700 high-altitude balloons for universities and research agencies. Source.

(Above) An FBI agent and a Texas Department of Public Safety officer looked over a 4-foot by 6-foot piece of the Space Shuttle Columbia that was found in the median along State Highway 155 north of Palestine, Texas on Sunday, February 2, 2003.

(Below) The space shuttle blew up over North Texas and pieces of the wreckage were scattered over East Texas and Louisiana.

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