Thursday, July 21, 2005

Copycat of 7/7

How much more of a copycat could this be? Another Thursday in London, three explosions in the subway, one on a bus.

Thursday, July 07, 2005

London Explosions

Reports from London are of series of subway and double-decker bus explosions this morning.

Al Qaeda? G8 is meeting in Edinburgh and the announcement for the 2012 Olympics being held in London was made yesterday.

Is there a twlight language angle here? If the reports are confirmed, apparently there were four explosions taking place on 7-7-2005 (with 2 + 5 = 7). Needless to say, al Qaeda has shown a deep interest in numerical symbolism, with attention to "elevens" in their past attacks, with the 9/11 incidents most discussed, as well as terrorist explosions occurring in the Philippines, Bali, and Madrid. Is there something going on with "sevens" too?

Such as with Flight 77 being one of the planes hijacked on 9/11?

Thursday, June 30, 2005

Summer Scares

Shark Scares

The media appears to be salivating at the prospect that this could be another "Summer of the Shark." Two severe shark attacks, one fatal, in three days off the west coast of Florida have articles being printed with headline warnings that this may be "Just The Beginning."

Spielberg Scares



Since the summer of 1975 when a certain now-successful Hollywood director's Jaws terrified the teens off the beaches, shark attack scares have existed in the human psyche, thanks to Steven Spielberg.

Now Spielberg visits upon us his latest chronicle of cinema terror in his continuing series of screaming children flicks. I went to War of the Worlds with my older sons last night. It is a movie, both frightening and engaging. As a science-fiction motion picture, it will be critiqued as significant and important. But there's a twilight language text to this film. Spielberg has added a new chapter to his allegedly covert pedophile tendencies, in which his motion pictures (e.g. Jurassic Park, Hook, Artificial Intelligence: AI, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, Poltergeist, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Twilight Zone: The Movie) appear to delight in scaring and emotionally abusing children.

This is not a novel idea. Adam Parfrey wrote a 1996 essay on Spielberg's seemingly sinister trend in his movie themes, which was reprinted in the Steamshovel Press entitled "Pederastic Park?." If you get a chance, read Parfrey's essay.

If you have young children, you might wish to think twice about them going to see the new Spielberg version of War of the Worlds. I frankly don't understand why some subplots are in there, such as the one involving the Tim Robbins character, who is one behavior away from overtly being a child molester.

Friday, June 10, 2005

Moodiness and Media Self-Defense

Copycat Events Catchup

I've been busy with other matters, but the copycat effect hasn't. And the media's reaction to it, as well.

There are the usual late spring shooting sprees, but the one that jumps out, of course, is the sad story of the Logan County, Ohio, high school senior who was about to graduate but instead kills six people. This, I find, had many elements of a school shooting and family rampage mixed into it.

As widely reported by the media, Scott Moody, 18, just hours away from graduating from high school, fatally shot three family members (his grandparents and mother), two friends and himself on Sunday, May 29th, in rural Bellefontaine, Ohio. The twilight language named "Logan" county has been the scene of many unusual events, down through the years.

As usual, accounts of the funeral carried this line: "Neighbors and friends said they could not reconcile the description of Moody as the gunman with the quiet boy they knew," Cleveland Plain Dealer, June 7, 2005.

Next, I wish to thank correspondent T. Peter Park for bringing to my attention an article in The Guardian of June 7, 2005. It begins somewhat humorously: "Reading the BBC news headlines on the internet one night last month, Graham Barnfield came across references to an academic blaming TV shows for the 'happy slapping' craze. 'My first thought was, here we go again,' he says. 'Yet another berk falling for the theory of copycat behaviour.'

As he read on, the article was about him.

While this funny scenario unfolds, however, we get this bit of media self-defense sent our way: "Anyone who had bothered to read any of Barnfield's published writings on the media would know that he distinguishes between the cognitive effects of television and film, where viewers absorb information, and the behavioural effects, where they allegedly copy scenes from the screen. 'While the first undeniably exists,' he says, 'there is very little evidence for the second.'"

Unfortunately, Barnfield seems to have missed out on reading about the Werther or Copycat Effect in the last thirty years. The Werther Effect notes that movies like The Deer Hunter result in an increase in Russian roulette deaths, events like celebrity suicides produce a bump in the national suicide rate, and school shootings are most certainly copycatted. If anyone knows Mr. Graham Barnfield's address, send it along, and I'll post him a copy of
The Copycat Effect.

Friday, May 13, 2005

Zion Killings and Devil Ladder Road's Mass Murder

The Mother's Day killings in Zion, Illinois, of two young girls, one a Hobbs (wearing an "angel" t-shirt), allegedly by her father, Jerry Hobbs ("Hobbs" = Old English for "Devil") was followed by the discovery of six bodies on Devil Ladder Road (or Devil's Ladder Road, in some reports) in Riverside County, California.

David McGowan, 44, apparently shot his wife, mother, and three children to death early Tuesday, May 10, in the murder-suicide at his large ranch home on that road, in Garner Valley, near Idyllwild.

McGowan was a Riverside County district attorney's investigator. No motive is known for the mass killings.

What will this year's only Friday the 13th bring?

Thursday, May 12, 2005

No Surprise: Car Chase Killing Broadcast Live

In a press release on February 26, 2003, Mayor Jim Hahn, Los Angeles Police Chief William Bratton, Los Angeles County Sheriff Lee Baca, the California Highway Patrol, the Los Angeles Police Chiefs’ Association and the Los Angeles Board of Police Commissioners ask the media to "stop live continuous television coverage of police pursuits" - more popularly known as "car chases." They noted that "the media’s treatment of pursuits as entertainment encourages copycats to engage in these highly dangerous chases."

More that 700 suspects fled L.A. law enforcement officers in 2002, making Los Angeles the "Car Chase Capital of the World."

The ultimate outcome of all of the car chases being televised was predictable. As crosstown television station NBC4 headlined the news, on May 11, 2005, "Officers shoot man on live TV at end of pursuit." After a 50-minute pursuit across the Los Angeles communities of Long Beach and the South Bay, it ended with the fatal shooting of the car's driver, as he ran out of the car with one gun, dropped it, and then went for another in his pocket. Rival KABC-TV had shown the sequence of events live on air, as they followed the events from TV helicopters.

A KABC-TV spokesman told the The Los Angeles Times, "Live breaking news is always unpredictable." The spokesman said no one knew shots were going to be fired and "the instant we did, we went to a wide shot.".

But why the surprise? How have some car crashes ended? With the crash of the car? With the injury or death of the drivers or bystanders? Yes, of course. What is the goal of showing car chases, over and over? And have the media acknowledged that the copycat effect is in full swing here, and that every car chase shown stimulates more to occur? This "kind of story...has become a staple of local newscasts," noted The Los Angeles Times.

Following the live coverage of the shooting, Los Angeles Police Chief William J. Bratton and Sheriff Lee Baca again urged TV stations to reduce their coverage of chases, arguing that the intense focus encourages criminals to flee from authorities.

Marty Kaplan, an associate dean at the USC Annenberg School for Communication, asked by the paper about the car chases said: "I think the motto, 'If it bleeds, it leads,' didn't just fall from the sky....It's well-known that mayhem attracts our attention…. Ever since the possibility of O.J. Simpson blowing his brains out while we all watched him in the Bronco, we have known the power of that stuff to get ratings."

I guess this is why the subtitle of my book is "How the Media and Popular Culture Trigger the Mayhem in Tomorrow's Headlines," and I include a section about "Death Sells."

Will this wake up the LA media? No, instead, the local California news today will be a platform for multiple repeats of this "dramatic" shooting, just as it has been on all the national morning news shows today.

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Twilight Language in Zion?

Ritualistic Killings in Zion?

The twilight language may be revealed in the Mother's Day killings of two second-grade girls near Beulah Park in Zion, Illinois. Could the place and victims have been purposedly selected?

The news of the deaths are the lead story in many media outlets. Let me quote from today's (May 10, 2005) New York Times to make some points.

Zion

First, you have the name "Zion" with it's natural lexilinks to the ancient "Zion" of the Mideast and to the "Zion" of the Matrix movies. As I point out in The Copycat Effect, some killers have used The Matrix for inspiration.

In the New York Times article, "2 Girls Found Stabbed to Death in Illinois Park," writers Gretchen Ruethling and Jodi Wilgoren note that Illinois's present-day Zion, "a close-knit community of nearly 23,000 people about halfway between Chicago and Milwaukee, was founded by an evangelist in 1901 as a utopian society 'where residents would commit to living clean lives, have healthy habits and work together for the honor and glory of God,' according to its Web site. One of the first planned cities in the United States, it was laid out to imitate the British flag, its main roads, all with biblical names, leading to a hub."

The young victims, who were found fully-clothed and not sexually-molested, but nevertheless were killed in a way said to be "heinous" and "heart-rending."

The Name Game Continued: Hobbs and Krystal

The names of the girls were released today. Police identified them as Laura Hobbs, 8, and Krystal Tobias, 9, best friends in the same class at Beulah Park Elementary School in Zion. People familiar with my writings on the occult (as in hidden) "name game" will recognize immediately a moniker that pops up often in my discussions: "Hobbs."

From an earlier book of mine, talking, at first about the fictional use of the name "Hobbs," I mention that:

+++
...Hobbs Lane has a long history of poltergeist, haunting and apparition activities. One keen young researcher discovers an old street sign near the diggings, and she notes the spelling is “Hob’s Lane,” not “Hobbs Lane.” “Hob,” it turns out, is another name for “devil,” or the “Devil,” if you prefer.
Some words do not appear to be what they so calmly convey. “Hob,” for example, is an alteration of Robin or Robert, as in Robin Goodfellow, a rustic, a clown (lest we get too far from the phantom clowns). Goodfellow, sometimes called Puck, was/is a tricksy house sprite or elf in popular English fairy lore. And Puck is sometimes called hobgoblin. Even the descriptive verb “hobble” refers to the word’s origins, as the classic view of the Devil shows cloven hooves.
In the United States, consequently, Hobbs, New Mexico, and Hobbs, Indiana, have “devil’s names.” Although the local folks know a great deal about the strange things happening thereabouts, most probably do not know that the etymological origins of their towns’ names flash back to a demonic past.
++++

The Zion case also involves the name "Krystal," a name we have come across before in high-profile cases. On March 19, 2000, Krystal Steadman, age 9, was kidnapped from an apartment complex in Stateline, Nevada. She was beaten, raped, tortured and murdered. The next day her body was found near Highway 50, below Spooner Summit. In 1999, teenager Krystal Archer was battered and died in a ravine, where she was thrown, near Madison, Georgia. Krystal Baker, 13, disappeared after calling a friend from a Texas City, Texas, convenience store, on March 5, 1986. Her beaten body was found on the same day twenty-five miles north of Texas City under the Trinity River Bridge. Special names in special places.

The nature of the Zion murders, the name game being "played" there, the twilight language used may all reveal this new homicide is by a ritualistic or serial killer.

The Investigators: Watkins

Finally, in terms of the name game's ultimate coincidental twist,New York Times identified the chief spokesperson emerging from the Zion situation as "Clyde Watkins, deputy chief of the Zion Police Department."

"It's a crime against not only those kids but against all of us," Chief Watkins said at a news conference on Monday afternoon, as quoted by The New York Times. "We have two murdered children, and we don't have anybody in custody."

"Watkins" may "see" things the rest of us do not or feel personally impacted by these crimes. The name "Watkins" turns up in these cases, as the ones with insights. Watkins is a key name linked to historic child disappearances, such as ther series at Watkins Glen, New York, in the 1970s, or the law enforcement officers doing the looking into these crimes (e.g. Columbus police Lt. David Watkins who is investigating El Salvador kidnappings in central Ohio). It probably is just a coincidence, therefore, that earth mysteries observer and discoverer of ley lines in 1921, was named Alfred Watkins.

Ritualistic killers won't be picking specially-named towns with police officers named "Watkins," would they?

This Zion killer won't have selected these kids because of their names, would he?

The thought is horrifying. I am hoping I am so wrong on this one.

Friday, April 29, 2005

Freeway Sniper Incidents, Compared to Beltway Attacks

While information is relatively quiet in the American national media, data on some recent LA freeway sniper incidents have hit the London papers. Four deaths on the highways around Los Angeles have been recorded during March and April 2005, but other than in southern California, it has not jumped to broader attention before now.

The Times of London (UK) observed:

"So far detectives have no suspects in any of the shootings. Although they are not ruling out the kind of 'Beltway sniper attacks' that terrorised the East Coast in 2002, they are more concerned that the shootings are simply copycat incidents."

Monday, April 18, 2005

Black Smoke, White Smoke, Gun Smoke

I am off to Atlanta, to spend three days with the folks from the CDC, reviewing applicants' grant proposals on suicide prevention. I'm not certain what's going to happen while I'm away, but I am prepared for the coming days to be eventful. This next week will hold promises of some hopeful news and yet, too, of some events that hopefully will not occur, despite my sense of what might be.

The election of a new pope will be signaled with puffs of white smoke and ringing of bells, but this may be proceeded by days of black smoke as a divided conclave reflects the disputatious days in which we live. Who will be the twilight language's 111th Pope - "The Glory of the Olives" - Pope Gloria Olivæ?

Meanwhile, will April 18, Patriots' Day, technically exactly four weeks since the Red Lake school shooting, greet us with wondering for whom the bells will toll, as gun smoke drifts over a school campus? Or will April 19 (Waco and Oklahoma City bombing) or April 20 (Columbine and Hitler's birthday) be marked with violence again? Then comes April 21, the numerical and reflective "one month" from Red Lake's March 21. That might mirror what happened with Columbine's April 20, "anniversary" syndrome six years ago when a link to the symbolic month, not the technical one, occurred. It was on May 20, when six students in a Conyers, Georgia high school were wounded by a 15 year old shooter who put the gun in his mouth but didn't fire. No one died in the incident, thankfully.

People are taking seriously the whole idea that a copycat school shooting could occur. Already we are seeing the active intervention of people searching for signs as they surf the web to stop school shootings. The end of last week, a Cleveland salesman was credited by police in Asheville, North Carolina with foiling a possible rampage there. He authorities about the following message at a forum:
"I'm planning a Columbine on my dumb hippie school on the last day of school so everybody will be there to enjoy the Massacre," wrote the student with the screen name "Py." Later, he added, "I know where my dad's 12-gauge is along with his .45, .38 and his .22."

Meanwhile today, a San Diego County woman told law enforcerment of how she discovered through her granddaughter's Internet communications of messages mentioning the date of a threatened shooting being April 20th. Because of the date's link to Columbine, authorities took the threat seriously.

Everyone has their guard up for the coming smoke next week. I hope I return to Maine and only write of white smoke, not of gun smoke. The copycat effect's negativity does not have to happen if we use our awareness of it to prevent violence.

Friday, April 15, 2005

"F-Factor" to Stephen King's Rage - Deciphering School Schoolings

The D.C. newspaper, the Washington Blade, raises the notion that there's a hidden, in their words, "fag factor" behind school violence from Red Lake to Moses Lake, in their April 15, 2005 article, "'Boy-code’ a factor in fatal school shootings?."

Writer Ryan Lee makes several good points about the shameful abuse gay and lesbian students endure, and the homophobia in school. But as with articles that only consider the one-note arguments of medications or guns in America or bullying being the sole risk factor behind school shootings, we have to be careful about blaming everything on this newly promoted "boy-code."

Lee's examples are hand-picked, slanted, and focus only on the homophobia found in a few, only six, of the 45 school violence events since 1996, noted in my book. For example, his retelling of the Moses Lake incident is incomplete, if not downright incorrect.

The Blade's Lee writes that the February 2, 1996 school shooting at Frontier High School, in Moses Lake, Washington, involving Barry Loukaitis, resulted in one person being killed. Lee writes of Loukaitis' "anti-gay history": "Classmates testified during Loukaitis’ trial that he pledged to kill classmate Manuel Vela after Vela repeatedly taunted him as a 'faggot' a month before."

Homophobia is Everywhere

The horrible but true fact is that homophobic labels are in widespread use in America, across all demographic groups, between racial, ethnic, and speciality cliches that have developed in our extremely divided schools. The cultural war is alive and well in the new "no child left behind" focus on tests results, while the hearts and minds of our youth are being split into diverse groups. The f-label is the latest fad moniker to be employed in this new landscape. Students and other young people do not have to be outcasts, bullied, or "different" to have a demeaning slang form used against them, seemingly jokingly or with hostility. The reality of life in schools, in the last part of the 20th century into this one, is that this specific f-word has replaced the n-word for "normal" conversation. I was recently discussing this issue with a local high school student who told me that his teammates use the f-label (rendered as "feg" so they won't get in trouble with school officials) with each other all the time - painting the good, the bad, and the uncoordinated sports players with the anti-gay term.

Should we attempt to decipher a deeper meaning as linked to school shootings from this high level of usage? In most school shooting situations, I wage, if you interviewed the entire school body, you probably could hear about someone who had thrown the f-word in the direction of the future shooter, sometime, someplace. The label is overused, unfortunately these days, but it is used - in conjunction with all kinds of youth.

Furthermore, during my reading of the Lee article online his morning, it is clear that at least one factual error seems to make it seem as if the target was a direct result of Ryan Lee's homophobic "factor."

Moses Lake to Red Lake

Lee's article ignores the broader context in which the Moses Lake incident happened, and, indeed, misstates that one person was killed. There were three individuals shot dead. The pattern of death was a deliberate one, as I note in The Copycat Effect. Here's a summary of what I wrote in my book: On Groundhog’s Day, 1996, Barry Loukaitis, 14, dressed all in black, with boots and a long black tenchcoat that hid his father’s hunting rifle and two handguns, walked into his fifth-period algebra class at Moses Lake and started shooting. Loukaitis killed two classmates (Arnold Fritz and Manuel Vela) and then severely wounded another (Natalie Hintz). Next, Loukaitis aimed at the back of his algebra teacher, Leona Caires, and killed her as she was writing an equation on the chalkboard. With the carnage around him and 15 students in the room crying hysterically, Loukaitis calmly turned, smiled and said: “This sure beats algebra, doesn't it?” The line was an exact quote from the Stephen King novel, Rage. Physical education teacher Jon M. Lane then rushed into the room, knocked the rifle away from Loukaitis, and wrestled him to the floor to end the shooting.

Loukaitis had planned the shootings carefully, getting ideas, he said, from the Stephen King (writing as Richard Bachman) book Rage (1977). In it, a troubled high school boy takes a gun to fictional Placerville High School, kills his algebra teacher “Mrs. Underwood,” another school adult “Mr. Vance,” and takes the algebra class hostage. Police would find a collection of Stephen King's books in Loukaitis' bedroom, including his well-worn copy of Rage.

Also a copy of Rage was found in the locker of Michael Carneal, a high school shooter who also killed three, on December 1, 1997, in West Paducah, Kentucky. Carneal is likewise on Ryan Lee's unfortunately labeled "fag factor" list. What Lee avoids mentioning is that all of Carneal's victims were girls, and they were in a prayer circle. Carneal was as anti-Christian as Jeff Weise in Red Lake or the shooters in Columbine. Yes, homophobia is there in some cases, as are several multivariables. Adolecents are not simple. School shootings are too complex for us to consider just one "factor."

A multifaceted view that various vulnerable young people are being triggered by the copycat effect is ignored, yet again, in Ryan Lee's otherwise thoughtful treatment of the topic. Just as a match can set off a fire of gasoline, wood, or paper, so too can the school shooters, coming from many backgrounds, be ignited to kill from many points of origin. A reaction to homophobic abuse is surely one risk factor, but it is certainly not the only one, another more than if "blame" totally is placed on Stephen King's Rage. To say so only furthers the media not looking more deeply at their role in these "copycat rampages."

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

April's Initial Copycat Trends

As expected, there has been a rash of copycat school shooting threats and "death lists" discovered around the country since the Red Lake shooting. ABC News overviews a good summary, here. Look for more.

Meanwhile, the spillover between "rampages" was in evidence the middle of the first week of April.

Beginning at 8 a.m., on Thursday, April 7, a man went on a widely broadcast shooting spree through two states. Two people were killed and four others were wounded during the 45-minute shooting events that began in Delaware and ended in Maryland. Allison Lamont Norman, the 22-year-old alleged male shooter, like Jeff Weise in Red Lake, was wearing a bulletproof vest.

Also on April 7, Jeffrey Doyle Robertson, 45, reportedly went to the Canton, Texas (near Waco) high school just after classes started Thursday and shot football coach Gary Joe Kinne, apparently with a .45-caliber pistol. The story received widespread media attention, for a few days nationwide, such as in this article in the Baltimore Sun. After the shooting, Jeff Robertson went into the woods near the high school and attempted to kill himself by slashing his arms and stabbing his leg.

This homicidal-suicidal shooting of the football coach in Texas could be repeated in a disturbing outburst at the end of the month. With my sense that April 18-April 26 will be the next window of real danger for school shootings, I don't like the copycat effect of what this coach shooting might trigger in others. Needless to say, coaches should be careful. Unfortunately, it is a time for heightened awareness, not just for educators in the next few weeks, but especially, now for teacher-coaches in this country. The vulnerable and unstable may be triggered by this Texas incident.

Schools are already preparing for next week. Columbine High School will be closed on April 20, 2005.

THE FUTURIST, May-June: "Combating Copycat Violence"

Just placed online, THE FUTURIST, May-June 2005 Vol. 39, No. 3, has published Lane Jennings' article, "Combating Copycat Violence," which tackles an important issue. I appreciate their acknowledgement of my attention to this subject in my new book.

THE FUTURIST has even been very responsive to my bit of feedback about their article. At the end of the commentary by Jennings, the journal has this final paragraph:

"Instead of suppressing the media, as Coleman seems to recommend, we could try harder to balance violent content with more positive stories that are dramatic and worthy of potential copycats' attention."

I wrote the editor to note that as opposed to wishing to restrain the media, in the final chapter of my book I agree exactly with Jennings through my seven recommendations and supporting text. My final recommendation, number seven, in fact, is as follows:

"(7) And finally, the media should reflect more on their role in creating our increasingly perceived violent society. Honest reporting on the positive nature of being alive in the twenty-first century may actually decrease the negative outcomes of the copycat effect, and create a wave of self-awareness that this life is rather good after all. Most of our lives are mundane, safe, and uneventful. This is something that an alien watching television news from outer space, as they say, would never know. The media should 'get real,' and try to use their influence and the copycat effect to spread a little peace rather than mayhem."

Managing Editor Cindy Wagner quickly sent me this email on April 11th: "We will post your response on our Website and include it in the Feedback section in the next issue of The Futurist magazine."

Sunday, April 03, 2005

Rebutting Neil Steinberg's Column on NYU

Dear Editor, New York Daily News:

Neil Steinberg's column in the Sunday, April 3, 2005, issue of the New York Daily News, has a negative comment on the NYU decision to close balconies to prevent suicides.

I have read similar comments in one student newspaper. But this view is an unfortunate one. And tragically uninformed, as well.

Steinberg notes that NYU's resolution is "well-intentioned but wrong in trying to curb student suicides," and then repeats this old incorrect chestnut: "People who want to kill themselves find a way." Recalling a deeply personal experience (which is how most people relate to suicide), Steinberg remembers when he was a student how another used a knife as the way to kill himself. Steinberg is talking about different methods. He is not discussing going from one method to another in his example, and certainly not giving insights into the copycat effect we see occurring at NYU, in which students there are dying by jumping, a very rare means of suicide.

Several components of what we know about suicide must be taken into account here. In general, in the majority of situations, when a person decides to take his or her own life, they stick to their plan, even an impulsive one, and in the majority of cases, do not drift from their chosen method, to die by suicide. Yes, there are exceptions to this, but people do not usually move from method to method to kill themselves. That's a myth that allows potential helpers the opportunity to feel helpless, and serves any of us in avoiding doing anything to prevent suicides. The rigidity of the tunnelvision of suicidal thinking often is inflexible to going to another method if the chosen one becomes unavailable. Actually interrupting the method often sidetracks the crisis into a helping period in which the suicidal person may put everything in perspective - and live beyond the crisis. In 2004, I wrote a book (The Copycat Effect) that details the decades of research supporting exactly what NYU has done to actively prevent suicides.

Steinberg then paradoxically goes on to say "removing the knives" doesn't work as well as "programs and campaigns designed to discourage suicide." If he believes this, what is wrong with trying as many programs as possible to save lives? And does he not see that "removing lethal means" is merely another one of these "programs"? In the midst of a suicide cluster or crisis, in the midst of a wave of behavior contagion as exhibited when the copycat effect sweeps through a campus or a high school, attention to the
specific method that is being modeled from one vulnerable individual to another must occur. Limiting access to that "copycatted" method keeps people safe and alive.

New York University officials are saving lives by closing balconies, and giving students a second chance to overcome the pain that they are trying to escape through their leaps of death. Student editorials and columnists aside, NYU has done the right thing!

Sincerely,
Loren Coleman, MSW
Suicidologist, Author

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Copycat Catchup: NYU's balconies, Russian roulette, Minnesota fallout (news from Red Lake, Spokane gun incident)

It has been a busy week. Here's some items that have come to my attention in recent days.

NYU's balconies

On March 29, New York University's student paper, the Washington Square News broke the news that NYU was going to be closing all the balconies at two more dorms on campus to discourage jumping suicides. On March 30, the rest of the New York media - New York Times, Newsday, New York Post - picked up the story. Following two suicide leaps from the atrium of the Bobst Library, and after the series reached five recent NYU jumping suicides, the copycat effect certainly was occurring. NYU consulted with many specialists, including calling and talking to me, reading my book, and then decided to limit access to the lethal means, the dorm balconies. As one news source noted, it is no different that building a fence to prevent suicide off the Golden Gate Bridge. In answer to the students' and other critics who quickly said: "Well, if people want to kill themselves, they will just go to another method," - no, that may occur, but it usually does not. The copycatting of jumping is very real. The interruption of the suicidal plan that saves lives is a reality of suicide intervention and prevention work.

I'm at the University of New England today, to give a noontime talk to a student and faculty group there about college suicides.

Russian roulette

I got an email over the weekend from a colleague asking about The Deer Hunter and requesting some advice on talking to a teacher who had shown the film last week to a classroom of students, without even discussing it. Remarkably, the teacher had stopped the film at the point of the Russian roulette scene, and had the students rent it to watch at home. Of course, The Deer Hunter has a graphic depiction of Russian roulette and almost 50 copycat deaths are know to have been linked to viewing it. Needless to say, I recommended this parent share those passages in my book, filled with the case examples and research about The Deer Hunter, with the teacher. I learned yesterday she had, and the teacher was unaware, and thus shocked by this information. Education, education, education. Whew.

As fate would have it, I had recently learned that on March 22, 2005, according to Orange County law enforcement officials, an Apopka, Florida man, Jeremiah Overstreet, 27, had killed himself after watching the movie "Man on Fire" with his girlfriend at his home in Apopka. There is a scene in the movie in which the Denzel Washington character plays Russian roulette. As one media outlet, Local 6 News too graphically noted: "Overstreet put his own gun to his head knowing that there was one bullet inside the gun. The gun fired and hit Overstreet in the head. He was pronounced dead at the scene."

Red Lake Fallout

Another arrest has occurred in Red Lake, Minnesota. Investigators suspect there was a wider attack planned and have taken the tribal chairman's son into custody, according to the Pioneer Press of St. Paul, Minnesota.

Meanwhile, "The Devil in Red Lake" is the ill-advised and truly unfortunate headline in this week's Time Magazine, with reference to Jeff Weise and the school shootings at Red Lake, Minnesota.

With headlines like "Teen motivated by shootings in Minnesota," the Associated Press and MSNBC reported that a 14 year old Ferris High School (Spokane, Washington) student was arrested for bringing a loaded gun to his former school on Thursday, March 24. He allegedly planned to kill a teacher and himself, and told investigators he was partly motivated by the recent deadly shootings at a school on a Minnesota Indian reservation. He had taken the gun from his father. Police say the youth wrote a suicide note, then took the gun to Ferris High, where he saw his intended victim, a teacher inside a doorway. He came within six feet of the teacher, police said, but because others were around, he didn't carry out his plan. A family member called police after finding the boy's note. Officers later found the teen walking about four blocks from the school. Some news reports appear to say he was arrested on Friday, but it seems he was taken into custody on Thursday.

Friday, March 25, 2005

Predicting Dates of Future Shootings and Prevention

Predicting when the Red Lake school shooting would occur this year was relatively easy when one becomes attuned to the copycat effect.

So, now, when should we look for the next round of shootings? And can educators and law enforcement professionals do anything to be on the lookout and prevent them?

First of all, I do sense the wall-to-wall coverage of the Red Lake shooting may trigger vulnerable suicidal boys with guns who over-identify with Jeff Weise. Will the next one be another neo-Nazi who uses a gun or someone that hates their math class? I'm not a psychic but all the incidators are that a suicidal youth who "wants to take some people with him" could repeat this awful tragedy in the next month. There is a three/four-day, seven-day, and one-month media cycle that are behind these copycats.

So, if we get through next Monday, we might get beyond this current short-term window. But then in a month, we are going to be entering an extremely dangerous time. The whole week from April 18 through April 26 will be key. You have dates that are well-known twilight ones, extremely high priorities on the neo-Nazi-suicidal-school-shooter calendar, including April 19 (Waco & Oklahoma bombing anniversaries), April 20 (Hitler's birthday, Columbine anniversary), April 21 (Red Lake, MN's one-month anniversary), April 24 (Edinboro, PA school shooting anniversary), and April 26 (Rudolf Hess's birthday, Erfurt, Germany school shooting anniversary). Considering the multiple variables related to these dates, combined with when most suicides occur (Mondays), and the anniversaries at work here, I would say that the Mondays of April 18 or April 25, could be the dates to most worry about. As schools will be tuned into April 19-20, the dissemination of the other key dates should happen and officials should not let their guards down before or after these oft-mentioned dates. School shootings are not a remembrance of Columbine, and have more to do with rage, hate, and those feelings, for example, projected via neo-Nazi events or local specific death anniversaries, points on the calendar that have meaning to the shooters, personally.

What should people do? The hidden secret in preventing a school shooter is to have a broad-based suicide prevention program in place that identifies and takes seriously the link between suicidal males and school shooters. The other prevention means you hear on the media - heavy security at school via armed guards, via unarmed guards, via friendly school resource officers, metal detactors - are important, of course. But by the time student is thrown out or disassociated from his school, it is too late and he comes back to kill. A broad, coordinated suicide prevention and mental health approach needs to be given in conjunction with a safe school environment, and one in which students save lives through telling adults. Students need to be able to tell adults about their fears and what they have heard without thinking they will be "getting" a peer in trouble. The reinforcement of listening/telling skills must happen, so these front-line students can see that the youth they identify are given help, not punished.

It is a complex issue that calls for anything but simple answers.

Thursday, March 24, 2005

A Flawed Article: "Experts Debunk Notion of Copycats"

An Open Letter to the Rocky Mountain News Editors:

Unfortunately, concerning the phenomenon of school shootings, the Rocky Mountain News' "Experts Debunk Notion of Copycats" is a dangerous treatment of a serious subject and hardly a comprehensive survey of "experts." I count two Colorado individuals, one a lecturer in sociology and the other an assistant director at a research center as attempting to overturn over forty years of well-documented rigorous studies of behavior contagion and the copycat effect. In my book, The Copycat Effect, I use over 300 pages and 400 references to show the extent of this research and the findings.

Copycat suicide waves after the suicides of famous people are known as the “Werther Effect,” from a 17th century suicide fad among young Europeans who had read Goethe’s “The Sorrows of Young Werther,” whose protagonist shoots himself with a pistol. Historically, "experts" such as Karl Menninger, Sigmund Freud, and Emile Durkheim wrote about the copycat behavior being a factor with suicides. Today, the copycat effect is well-documented, despite your two "expert" debunkers.

This effect has been proven to have a factual basis in reality over and over again, and it is harmful articles such as this one that tends to continue the ignoring of the problem. For over twenty years, the federal government and various suicide prevention organizations have published "media guidelines" for reporting on suicides because the copycat effect is a fact.

The copycat effect is so predictive that after the wave of rampage shootings that began this year, I wrote this prediction in my Copycat Effect blog last Friday, March 18th, that we should expect a "series of school shootings from March 20th through April 20th...I hope not, but every indication is that the media is entering its first post-9/11 'shooting rampage' feeding frenzy, and as March nears its end, and into April, 'school shootings' could be next."

In my book, in my long chapter on school shootings, I also predicted the underlying factors that are at work - males, neo-Nazis, all
are suicidal youth, use of guns, the twilight use of dates such as April 19 (Oklahoma City bombing, Waco), April 20 (Hilter's birthday, Columbine), and April 26 (Hess's birthday, Erfurt school shooting). The media factor is at play here too, with the spillover any time you have a great deal of attention to workplace violence, such as experienced in Tyler, Texas-Chicago-Atlanta judge-courthouse shootings.

I hope someone at the Rocky Mountain News, someday, reads The Copycat Effect, and looks at what the real "experts" who have actually conducted studies of the issue say.

Keep the kids safe through awareness,
Loren Coleman, M.S.W.
Suicidologist, Consultant, Author

Wednesday, March 23, 2005

Red Lake School Shooting Will Lead to More

After predicting on March 18th (see in this blog below) that we should expect a school shooting in the March 20-April 20 period, and seeing it come to pass, my hope is people are becoming more alert to what is unfolding here. I also was correct in noting in my book the warning signs we should be aware of in the shooter (neo-Nazi, male, use of guns, twilight language, suicidal). Perhaps we should even reexamine the overlooked focus on math classes in these shootings, from Moses Lake (1996) to Red Lake (2005). We must watch out for the full impact of the copycat effect from the Minnesota incident.

Already, more "hit list" stories are in the media today at a high school in Noble, Maine, at a high school in Biloxi, Mississippi, and at an elementary school in Shelby County, Kentucky.

American and international school shootings could follow in the near future, if the pre-9/11 pattern returns. Furthermore, I am warning be on the lookout around the high violence dates of April 19 (Waco and Oklahoma City bombing anniversaries) and April 20 (Hitler's birthday and Columbine). Law enforcement authorities have been aware of this "twilight calendar" for some years, and it is time for educators to wake up to it now. The copycat effect is real.

We are entering a dangerous temporal zone of death, and the best prevention, to do more active listening to teens who hear about hit lists and threats, combined with aggressive suicide interventions with the most vulnerable youth, are the keys to a safer time.

Remember, the underlying theme of all of these school shooters is that they have given up on any hope of a painless life, and wish to take some people with them in their final suicidal outbursts.

Korean Copycats Increase After Actress' Suicide

The Korean media is alerting us to a new wave of copycat suicides in the wake of a celebrity suicide, "Lee Eun-ju Sparks Copycat Suicide Craze."

Actress Lee Eun-ju hanged herself on February 22nd.

The article mentioned: "The Seoul Central Prosecutors Office said analysis of deaths in seven Seoul districts" from January through March 17th, "revealed that there were 2.13 suicides a day in the 23-day period after Lee’s suicide. This was 2.5 times the daily average of 0.84 during the 53-day period before Lee’s suicide."

"A woman in her 20s who hung herself in her room on the morning of March 1 told people around her that she had found a way to free herself from debt after learning of actress Lee Eun-ju’s suicide, police said."

Hanging had moved from 53% of the suicides to 80% of the deaths, with 14 of the 15 individuals in their 20s using the method of hanging. Clearly, behavior contagion and modeling are occurring in Korea. The article mentions the "Werther Effect," as the concept is clearly understand in Korea, and is realized as an important component in these suicides.

Tuesday, March 22, 2005

Unfortunately, School Shooting Prediction Can Occur

Sadly, the school shooting was no surprise to the readers of this blog, of last Friday, March 18th.

"...a possible series of school shootings from March 20th through April 20th could occur...I hope not, but every indication is that the media is entering its first post-9/11 'shooting rampage' feeding frenzy, and as March nears its end, and into April, 'school shootings' could be next."

I based this from an analysis of how the Werther (copycat) effect from other events (mall shootings, murder-suicides, courthouse shootings) spill over into school shootings, and the anniversary reality of the calendar.

In my book, The Copycat Effect
(NY: Simon and Schuster, 2004), I point out the youthful suicidal "school shooting" subculture uses the neo-Nazi calendar as a temporal roadmap. Columbine's and Erfurt, Germany's school shootings are the two most obvious examples.

This morning's Steve Karnowski-authored Associated Press story from Minnesota gives details on the alleged shooter's father who died by suicide, and the background of neo-Nazi information emerging about the boy who killed so many.

As I write in The Copycat Effect, the neo-Nazi underpinnings and the use of dates with twilight meanings (death dates and birth dates of Nazis) to these suicidal young males are significant components in past incidents. These elements are found once again in the Red Lake, Minnesota school shooting. There is evidence, once again, of this "school shooting" subculture overwhelming what would appear to be a strong cultural milieu, in this case, the Native American at Red Lake.

Now we must hold our breath to see if this event will trigger more school shootings, in the three-day, seven-day, and one-month copycat media cycle. I would look to especially April 19-20 as the next key dates, with attention being given for that entire April 18-26 time period.

Friday, March 18, 2005

2005's Red Danger Zone


All the warning signs are pointing to a possible series of school shootings from March 20th through April 20th. I hope not, but every indication is that the media is entering its first post-9/11 "shooting rampage" feeding frenzy, and as March nears its end, and into April, "school shootings" could be next.

I base this from an analysis of how the Werther (copycat) effect from other events (mall shootings, murder-suicides, courthouse shootings) spill over into school shootings, and the anniversary reality of the calendar. In my book, The Copycat Effect (NY: Simon and Schuster, 2004), I point out the youthful suicidal "school shooting" subculture uses the neo-Nazi calendar as a temporal roadmap. Columbine's and Erfurt, Germany's school shootings are the two most obvious examples.

[This is a reconstructed posting, due to it being deleted by accident.]

+++ UPDATE BULLETIN+++

The above warning of March 18, 2005, was followed by the Red Lake event: Neo-Nazi/Native Jeff Weise, a 16-year-old student at Red Lake High School, killed nine people and then himself in the town of Red Lake, Minnesota, on Monday, March 21, 2005.