Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Forecasting the June 24th Copycat Effect

by Loren Coleman, posted on June 22, 2022, at 2:37 pm EDT.

Since the start of 2022, the number of  incidents resulting in multiple victims of firearm-related violence, termed simply as "mass shootings," has been escalating weekly or even daily. Or so it seems, and the "feeling" is significant. By the middle of June 2022, the number has been noted as 250 or so mass shootings.

Several research services, groups, and media outlets track and define a mass shooting as "an incident in which four or more people, excluding the perpetrator(s), are shot in one location at roughly the same time."

UPDATE (Added 28 June 2022)

In the US, we began hearing the reports of a mass shooting in a gay bar around 7 pm, on the night of June 24, 2022. Two people were dead and several wounded.

The shooting took place at locations associated with Oslo Pride, the local LGBT pride event hosted by the Oslo branch of the Norwegian Organisation for Sexual and Gender Diversity, the night before the planned Pride parade in Oslo. The first shooting occurred at London Pub, a popular gay bar and nightclub. A journalist from the Norwegian public broadcaster NRK, stated he witnessed a man arrive with a bag, who then picked up a weapon and started shooting. The journalist thought it was an air gun at first, until the bar next door had glass shatter. According to one witness, the perpetrator shouted "Allahu Akbar" as he started shooting. He was identified as 42-year-old Norwegian Iranian Zaniar Matapour.

The perpetrator then moved to two more nearby locations, including Per på hjørnet, a bar popular among the adult LGBT community, and a takeaway. Police were called at 01:15 local time, and arrived minutes later. The suspect was detained five minutes after the attacks. 80 to 100 people hid in the pub's basement during the attack, and wounded people were lying both inside and outside the bar with the police describing the scene as "chaotic".

Two people were killed and twenty-one more were injured, ten of whom were critically injured while the other eleven were slightly injured. The deceased victims were 60-year old Kaare Hesvik, a gay man celebrating pride, and 54-year old Jon Isachsen, both residing in Bærum.

According to Eskil Pedersen, many of those present in London Pub, including himself, were also on Utøya during the shooting by domestic terrorist Anders Behring Breivik.

This shooting was said to be the first one in Norway for 11 years.

It also recalled the Pulse shooting. On June 12, 2016, Omar Mateen, a 29-year-old man, killed 49 people and wounded 53 more in a mass shooting at Pulse, a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, United States. Orlando Police officers shot and killed him after a three-hour standoff.

June 24, 2022.

Based on my studies of cluster suicides, murder-suicides, and mass shootings [see my books, Suicide Clusters (Faber and Faber, 1987), The Copycat Effect (Simon and Schuster, 2004), and this blog (2005-present)], I predict that Friday, June 24, 2022 may be a key date to watch for such a major event.  It could potentially be a deadly mass incident of gun-related violence ~ a shooting at a theater, school, workplace, conference, entertainment venue, sporting assembly, church, entertainment gathering, or other group affair that serves as a moment of opportunity for a future shooter.

There is nothing supernatural about making such a prediction. I've done it before. If you read what I said on July 19, 2012, the reality is that I did write before the Aurora "Red Dawn" event, in seemingly "prophetic" tones for people outside this field, that something big and violent, tied quite specifically to the opening of The Dark Knight Rises, was going to occur on July 20, 2012. This was not written after the fact. It was noted before it happened. There was a great deal to what I said, about past patterns, Joker copycats, violence, and examples like the anniversary of the Norway shootings that took place when Captain America was released on July 22, 2011.

The copycat effect follows a cyclic human pattern of contagion on the anniversaries pinpointing one day, one week, one year, and annual intervals from the initial event.

Additionally in 2022, on June 24th, a variety of events are colliding on that day:

The release of the Elvis movie occurs, and the scary, child unfriendly Black Phone film (from a story by Joe Hill, the son of Stephen King) opens.

The planets align in the sky.

The one year anniversary of the condo collapse of the Champlain South Towers, Surfside, Florida, in which 98 die, occurs.

The one month anniversary (from May 24, 2022) of the Robb Elementary School shooting, Uvalde, Texas (19 students, 2 teachers, and one gunman die) takes place.


The copycat effect is real, contagion is a major factor in mass shootings, and past history indicates  tomorrow's events.

After the Columbine High School "massacre" in Littleton, Colorado, of April 20, 1999, the next month saw 400 copycat incidents of shooting threats and bomb scares at schools. After the Aurora, Colorado theater shooting of July 20, 2012, copycat "Joker" shootings, terrorizing incidents, and related events followed in its wake.

The wave of mass shooting following the recent incidents in Buffalo, New York, and Uvalde, Texas, have been, unfortunately, "typical."

To be on the alert on June 24th is merely logical.

Copycat Mass Shootings and 2022

In 2022, this prediction appears to be prudent, for the 24th of the sixth month will fall exactly 30 days after May 24, 2022, the date on which the Robb Elementary School shooting resulting in 21 deaths, happened at Uvalde, Texas. 

Tracking mass shootings in 2022 has been overwhelming and Americans are showing signs of desensitivity. Only a few of the incidents are reported by the media, it seems, because keeping an heightened awareness is psychologically draining.

Some of the more noteworthy shootings detailed by the media are these:

June 9SmithsburgMaryland336A shooter opened fire at a manufacturing facility, killing three and injuring one before fleeing the scene. Responding officers spotted the fleeing suspect, who engaged in a gun battle with state troopers, leaving the suspect and a state trooper injured.
June 5Chattanooga(2)Tennessee212142022 Chattanooga shooting: Fourteen were shot, two of them fatally, at a nightclub during the early morning. A third person was killed by a vehicle attempting to flee.
June 4Philadelphia(9)Pennsylvania311142022 Philadelphia shooting: Fourteen people were shot, three of them fatally, by multiple shooters on South Street. One of the shooters may have been shot by a responding police officer.
June 1TulsaOklahoma505Warren Clinic shooting: At least four people were killed and multiple were injured after a shooting inside a building on the Saint Francis Hospital campus. The shooter fatally shot himself.
May 24UvaldeTexas221840Robb Elementary School shooting: An 18-year-old shot his grandmother at their home before driving to Robb Elementary School, where he entered the school unobstructed, barricading himself inside a classroom and fatally shooting twenty-one people, including nineteen children. Eighteen people in total were wounded. The shooter was eventually fatally shot by a Border Patrol officer, which was shot during the shootout.
May 15Laguna WoodsCalifornia1562022 Laguna Woods shooting: A man motivated by anti-Taiwanese sentiment opened fire at a church, killing one and wounding five others, before being physically restrained by churchgoers.
May 14Buffalo (3)New York103132022 Buffalo shooting: An 18-year-old white supremacist clad in body armor opened fire at a Tops supermarket, killing ten, including a security guard, and wounding three others.
April 17PittsburghPennsylvania29112022 Pittsburgh shooting: An early morning shooting at a party held at an Airbnb rental property in the East Allegheny neighborhood killed two juveniles, and wounded nine others. Five people sustained injuries such as broken bones and cuts when they jumped out windows to escape the gunfire.
April 16Columbia (2)South Carolina099Columbiana Centre shooting: Nine people were shot, and five others were injured while fleeing a shooting at the Columbiana Centre, after at least one person opened fire.
April 12New York City (2)New York010102022 New York City Subway attack: Ten people were shot when a gunman motivated by black supremacy opened fire on a New York City Subway train as it approached the 36th Street station in the Sunset Park neighborhood. Immediately before the attack, the assailant donned a gas mask and threw smoke bombs. The incident caused 19 others to be injured as they fled. The suspect was arrested the next day.

Looking at one weekend after the Uvalde shooting, it becomes clear the violence was in overdrive mode.

There were at least 10 mass shootings in the US during the weekend from Friday, June 3, 2022, through June 6, 2022, following several back-to-back massacres in recent weeks. In Philadelphia, three people died and 11 others were injured over the weekend after gunfire rang out at a popular entertainment district. Three others were killed and at least 14 were injured in a shooting in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Eight people were shot at a high school graduation party in Summerton, South Carolina, with one person killed. Several other shootings forced various law enforcement entities to remain on alert across the country. 

The shootings this weekend happened across eight states left at least 12 people dead and dozens more injured.
“I am tired of standing in front of you talking about guns and bodies,” Chattanooga Mayor Tim Kelly said.
On June 5, Sunday morning in Chattanooga, Tennessee, three people were killed and at least 14 others injured near a downtown nightclub.
In Mesa, Arizona, there was another shooting at a bar that left two people dead and two more injured.
In Phoenix, a strip mall shooting early Saturday, June 4, left one person dead and eight others hurt.
“I heard over a hundred gunshots going off. A group of people just started running like every different direction,” a witness said.
Phoenix police said the person killed in that shooting was a 14-year-old girl.
In Summerton, South Carolina, more children were hurt. Police said a drive-by shooting at a graduation party left one woman dead and seven others injured, including five young people ages 12 to 17 years old.
The mass shootings did not stop there. Five were hurt in Socorro, Texas. One was killed and three were hurt in Omaha, Nebraska.
In Chesterfield, Virginia, one person was killed and five were hurt.
“I was almost asleep and heard numerous gunshots, 20 to 40, woke me up. My fiancé running down the steps, get up get up, gunshots, gunshots,” a witness said.
In Bibb County, Georgia, a 19-year-old was killed and three people were hurt.
Other violent incidents happened over the weekend, too.
A pregnant woman was shot and killed in Philadelphia. Police said doctors were able to save her baby.

Synchromystic Analysis of the Smithburg, Maryland Shooting

June 24th is St. John's Day

The day is named after John the Baptist, in celebration of his birth date. The feast day of his birth (June 24) became celebrated more solemnly than the day of his death, which is often the case. His martyrdom was by beheading on August 29. This is unusual but then “strangeness” and June 24th go hand and hand.

Throughout Europe, and via the United Kingdom, St. John’s Day’s symbolism spread to the USA. In the UK, and especially, Scotland, bonfires are a key. Should we be surprised to find it so in North America?

St. John’s Day (”Jaanipäev”) is a major traditional holiday in Estonia, celebrated by singing around bonfires, in Estonian communities in the United States and Canada as well as in Estonia itself. The glow-worm, because it usually starts appearing around St. John’s Day, is called “Jaaniuss”–
St. John’s Worm” – in Estonian.

In France, the “Fête de la Saint-Jean” (feast of St John), traditionally celebrated with bonfires (le feu de la Saint-Jean) that are reminiscent of Midsummer’s pagan rituals, is a catholic festivity in celebration of Saint John the Baptist. It takes place on June 24, on Midsummer day (St. John’s day). In certain French towns, a tall bonfire is built by the inhabitants in order to be lit on St. John’s Day. In medieval times, this festival was celebrated with cat-burning rituals.

St. John the Baptist is the patron Saint of Turin.

Some previous events on this day include:

Knights Templars displayed “Mysterious Head” at Poitiers (1308). Founding of the Order of the Garter (1348). A sudden outbreak of St. John's Dance (1374) caused people in the streets of Aachen, Germany, to experience hallucinations, and jump and twitch uncontrollably until they collapsed from exhaustion. John Cabot discovered North America (1497). Lucrezia Borgia (1439) died. Samuel de Champlain discovered (1603) the mouth of the Saint John River, in New Brunswick, Canada. Galileo released (1633). “Woman of the Wilderness” utopian community arrived in America (1694). “Woman of the Wilderness” angelic visions (1701). Grand Lodge of Freemasons inaugurated (1717) in London. Napoleon's Grande Armée crossed (1812) the Neman River beginning the invasion of Russia. Ambrose Bierce born (1842). Red rain, Italy (1877). Ice fall, Ft. Lyon, Colorado (1877). Fall of jelly-like mass, Eton (1911). Fred Hoyle born (1915). 

June 24ths have often had a "fiery" theme, including these specifics tied to past June 24ths:

Arthur Brown ("Fire," 1942 or 1944, both are reported) is born. Jeff Beck (Yardbirds, 1944), Charlie Whitney (Family, 1944), and Chris Wood (Traffic, 1944), all born. Colin Blunstone (The Zombies, 1945) born. Mick Fleetwood (Fleetwood Mac, 1947) born.

Filmstock fire killed seventeen people, Brussels (1947). Movie theaters evaluated during huge fire, Perth Amboy, New Jersey (1947). United Airlines plane struck by lightning over Cleveland. Ohio (1947). Invasion of grasshoppers battled with flame-throwers, Guatemala/El Salvador (1947). Woman attacked and killed by bees or wasps, Seattle (1947). 

More births of future musicians. Patrick Moraz (Yes, 1948), John Illsley (Dire Straits, 1949), Astro (UB40, 1957), Dennis Danell (Social Distortion, 1961), Curt Smith (Tears for Fears, 1961), and Richard Z. Kruspe (Rammstein, 1967) were all born on June 24ths.

Bizarre aerial sightings near Daggett, California (1950) and on Iwo Jima (1953). The Angora Fire (2007) started near South Lake Tahoe, California, destroying over 200 structures in its first 48 hours.

On June 24, 1908, Grover Cleveland, the 22nd & 24th US President (1885-89, 93-97), died at the age of 71. On June 30, 1908, the Tunguska event, a large aerial explosion of unknown origins, near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River, Russia, occurred. The UFO wave of 1909 in New Zealand followed sightings in the Southland in June 1908. Pieces of a meteor, estimated to have weighed 450 metric tons when it hit the Earth's atmosphere and exploded, landed (1938) near Chicora, Pennsylvania.

St. John's Day and Ufology

There are several historical events that intersect on June 24ths.

As I have written about often, June 24 is known for "Ufologists' Deaths," due in large part for this date being the day in which the first "flying saucers" were reported in 1947. Such deaths have been in evidence in the past. 

It is a day about new beginnings, birth, and rebirth. But in ufology, it often is about endings and death. I have written earlier that due to the Anniversary Syndrome, ufo-related deaths do infrequently occur on June 24ths. The Anniversary Syndrome or Effect is tied to birthdays and important dates in a person's life that some people "wait" for on which to die. 

There is no more important date in ufology that it's "birthday," June 24, 1947.  Kenneth Arnold began the "Age of Flying Saucers" on June 24, 1947 with his famed sighting. 

June 24th UFO Deaths: The List

The topic of the death of ufologists is a modern but old one in the field. 

In 1971, UFO author Otto Binder claimed that at least 137 UFO investigators had died under mysterious circumstances during the 1960s. Binder's 1971 Saga article, "Liquidation of the UFO Investigators," summarized his findings.

Additionally, tied to a specific date, Otto Binder (1911-1975), as well as John Keel (1930-2009), noticed a number of “seemingly coincidental deaths in the UFO field on 24 June.” 

Here is a quick overview of the notable ufo-related deaths on or near June 24:

June 24 or 23, 1964, Frank Scully, 72, author of one of the first crashed-saucer books, Behind the Flying Saucers (1950), dies.

June 24, 1967, two British UFO contactees, Arthur Bryant, a contactee, and Richard Church, an author and chairman of CIGIUFO, die. 

June 23, 1967, Frank Edwards, 55, popular UFO author and radio personality in the 1950s, dies a few hours before Arthur Bryant. James Moseley stunned the delegates assembled for the 1967 Congress of Scientific Ufologists at New York City’s Hotel Commodore on June 24th, with the news of the sudden death of Frank Edwards.

June 24, 1969, Willy Ley, 62, a rocket scientist and Fortean author, dies. Willy Ley was one of the first respected modern scientist to attempt to answer the question of what is a flying saucer. In 1952, he was one of the first, if not the first person, to say that 85% of UFO sightings are misidentified craft, leaving the other 15% open to notions of "interplanetary travel," that he began writing about in 1926.

June 24, 1973, Bud Westmore, 55, dies of a heart attack. 

Bud was a renowned Hollywood make-up artist of the famed Westmore family, and has been credited with doing make-up for 592 films, including It Came From Outer Space (1953), This Island Earth (1955), Tarantula (1955), The Deadly Mantis (1957), Creature from the Black Lagoon (1954), Revenge of the Creature (1955), The Creature Walks Among Us (1956), and scores of mainstream films, like Spartacus (1960).

The Westmore family has dominated make-up departments in Hollywood since Bud's father George created the business in 1917. They have kept visible in recent years due to McKenzie Westmore, who since 2011, has served as the host of the Syfy original series Face Off, a reality competition featuring makeup artists. Bud was the uncle to Michael Westmore, famed for his Star Trek work and the father of McKenzie.

June 24, 1978, Robert Charroux, 69, the best-known pen-name of Robert Joseph Grugeau dies. Charroux was a French author known for his ancient astronaut theories and writings on other Fortean subjects, in such books as Masters Of The World: Groundbreaking New Revelations About The Ancient Astronauts (1979).

June 24, 1987, Jackie Gleason, 71, the actor, who was an early advocate of flying saucer research, dies. Gleason's known interest in UFOs allegedly prompted President Richard Nixon to share some information with him and to disclose some UFO data publicly.

June 24, 1997, Brian Keith (see here), who starred in Meteor (1979; with Sean Connery and Natalie Wood), dies by suicide. 

June 24, 2006, Lyle Stuart, 83, the renegade publisher who published anomalist writer Frank Edwards’ Fortean book, in 1959, Stranger than Science, a paperbook full of information on ufology and other unexplained accounts, dies.

June 24, 2013, James Martin, 79, a former rocket scientist, computer scientist, and author of After the Internet: Alien Intelligence (2000), is found floating dead in the waters off Agar's Island. Dr. Martin bought Agar’s Island in 1977 and made his home in Bermuda. The multi-millionaire kept a relatively low profile in Bermuda.

June 24, 2013, Alan Myers, 58, the most prominent drummer (1976-1987) of the band Devo, dies of stomach cancer in Los Angeles. Devo played punk, art rock, post-punk and new wave music, and performed stage shows that mingled kitsch science fiction themes, deadpan surrealist humor, and mordantly satirical social commentary. Devo recorded at their own self-named "UFO Studios." More.

June 24, 2015, Mario Biaggi, 97, dies. The former Bronx congressman was involved in the "UFO disclosure" movement, and was once pictured on the cover of Ideal's UFO Magazine, December 1978, Number 4. Within the periodical, there appears the article, "Interview: Mario Biaggi 'There Is A UFO Cover-Up By The Government.'" On the cover, an image of Biaggi is shown with President Jimmy Carter. More.

June 24, 2018, RoswellX-Files, and The Shining television guest star Stanley Anderson dies. 

June 24, 2018, the Voice of New York radio during the Great Northeast Blackout (caused by UFOs?), Dan Ingram dies. See further information on Anderson, Ingram, and others who died in 2018, here.

June 24, 2019, news reporter Sean Dunleavy, dies. The journalist was a witness to and a participant in the famed Linda Cortile UFO abduction case of November 30, 1989, Manhattan, New York. Read more.

June 24, 2020, Wan Gengyu (Chinese: 万庚育) died at 98. She was born January 29, 1922, in Gansu. She was a Chinese painter, librarian & dunhuangologist [i.e. prominent scholar student of the Mogao Grottoes or Caves (also known as the Thousand Buddha Caves) built in the 4th-14th century. Caves appear to clearly show UFOs over the Buddhas, and Giants.]

 Other items of note:

Dangerous Minds: "Meet the Man Who Predicted the Aurora Shootings" by Thomas McGrath, September 17, 2012. (Also here.)

"One measures a circle, beginning anywhere."
~ Charles Fort, Lo!, 1931.

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